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Sympathy for the Devil: Understanding Radical Islam and the Failure of Neo-Con Foreign Policy

Differences in Eastern and Western Views of War

If anyone would like a helpful primer on the motivations Middle Eastern society,  I cannot recommend highly enough a book given to me by a friend who worked at the NSA.  The book is called Balkan Ghosts, by Robert Kaplan, and while it is a travelog, it gives an invaluable history of the clash of East and West over the centuries, including insight into the different perceptions of war.  In the West, due to its Christian heritage,  a theory of just war was developed.  Among those principles in just war theory was a respect for the protection of non-combatants (civilians) and the establishment of justifiable reasons for war, such as protecting the nation from aggression by foreign powers.  Since the late Middle Ages, the West has recognized slaughter of non-combatants as unjust, and nations which ignored those principles were identified as rogue nations (Nazi Germany, e.g.).

But the Eastern view of warfare has always been entirely different, in part because the respect for the individual is not native to their value system. While this summary does not do justice to the book, it may begin to expose the vast cultural differences that exist between us. In Islamic and pre-Islamic tribal societies in the Middle East (like the Bedouins for example), your value to the society is based upon your membership in the tribe, your family, and your religion. In other words, you receive your value, not based upon your value as an individual life to God, but through the community. The result of this view of human beings has several consequences.  War in these societies has historically been genocidal.  You win wars by wiping out the other tribe. If you belong to the other tribe, your life has no intrinsic value, and there is no crime in wiping out your enemies. Wars are tribal, ethnic, and often religious, as we can see from the historic animosity between Shia and Sunni Muslims.  It is also why Saddam Hussein had no qualms of conscience about gassing the Kurds or any of his enemies who were not part of the Tikriti clan!

Arabian tribes before the rise of islam

Arabian tribes before the rise of islam (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Islamic societies are inherently theocratic, not secular.  In the West, we base our governments on social contracts through democratic or parliamentary constitutions, which create a loyalty to an abstract concept called “the state,” but in the Middle East and Africa, it was the Western colonial powers that imposed geographic borders on the lands and peoples.  It tried to forge a corporate allegiance to a multi-cultural, secular state, but the people saw themselves primarily as tribal and religious.  The artificially created states are responsible in part for the ongoing conflicts in regions like Nigeria and the Sudan. Abstract nation-state loyalties are not part of the cultures upon which these western ideas were imposed.  And the people certainly are not secular in their understanding of the government or state.

If you look at Iran, the state is primarily theocratic, with religious leaders (Imams) having the final say over the role of the government. Theocracy fits perfectly in line with the Islamic world view. Western, secular democracy, by its very nature, is considered opposed to Islam.  While in the West, individual freedom and freedom of conscience are essential to a functioning democracy, in Islamic states, submission to Allah is required, liberty of conscience is not an option, and individual freedom of choice is not important. You can be put to death for converting from Islam to Christianity or any other religion, because conversion away from Islam is equivalent to treason against the theocratic state.

Enter the Neo-Cons

In the long tradition of western democracy, the people tired of religious wars and eventually set up articles of toleration for various faiths. The Inquisitions and the Reformation gave way to secular states. In order not to have religious wars, the right of conscience had to be preserved, and the state’s neutrality on matters of faith or doctrine became necessary.  In the Christian tradition, faith is a gift of God, and therefore, no person can be forced to believe in certain articles of faith. It has to be by consent, and it is therefore necessary to preserve freedom of conscience and freedom of choice. Since faith is inward and spiritual, all the state can insist upon is conformity to outward laws and rules that govern the welfare and regulation of the social whole.  When the cultures of the West were still cradled in a Judeo-Christian heritage of laws and values, there was an open acceptance of the expression of religion in the public square and a consensus on moral values established in law.   But since the 1960’s in the US, and for much longer in places like France, there has been an attempt to remove all religious influence from public policy. The idea is that a secular democracy is indeed secular at the core; turning religious values and faith into entirely private matters. The idea driving public policy is that in order to preserve this secular freedom, no reference to faith-based values may be considered or used when forming law. We can see the hostility towards religious values at work in the media and in politics, as traditional Christian values (considered mainstream as recently as the 1950’s) are attacked as right-wing extremism, hate speech, or tagged with epithets like “Tea Party-ism.”   While “God Bless America” is spoken by all politicians, it is an insincere and calculated phrase used to imply agreement with American Civil Religion, without requiring real allegiance to any specific content, morals or doctrines. It is a nostrum spoken to satisfy the unthinking masses for crass political ends.

Consider, then, how antithetical the concept of secular democracy is to the theocratic Middle East!  Sure, we can say our way is better, but the problem of the Neo-Conservative foreign policy “experts” is that they naively believed they could impose western style secular democracy upon the tribal societies of the East. In their secular world view, they assumed that “everyone wants freedom.”   Misunderstanding the nature of eastern culture, the Neo-Con’s secular idealism got the US into a terrible trap in Iraq and Afghanistan.  The “unbiased” US military was dropped into the middle of a cat fight and told to keep the peace, in a place where tribal and religious vendettas last for centuries. We imposed a modified democracy upon Iraq, that is now showing signs of coming apart (due, in part, to the proxy war going on in Syria between Sunni and Shia factions).  And Afghanistan is probably a lost cause.  Bribery to us is the norm to them. The way a tribal leader shares his blessings with his clan is to take his riches and distribute them; so when the leader gets a boatload of money from the US government, it goes first to his family, then to his clan, then to his tribe. It is expected. To not do so would be to violate cultural values. It isn’t just that the peoples of these regions don’t want secular democracy or freedom of conscience, the fact is that they just don’t “get it.” It is a foreign value system which they don’t understand and which is not part of their heritage. How can they adopt something they did not grow up with and for which their culture has no historical connection? Western democracy cannot function in a place like tribal Afghanistan; it is bound to fail.

Now consider how arrogant the US looks to Islamic peoples. Not only does the US want to impose its political system upon their family, tribal system of loyalties; it also has the audacity to think it can impose western secularism and religious neutrality upon an entirely religious culture.  The problem is that the West can only impose this neutrality upon the Islamic peoples by denying that any religion or religious value is more true or right than any other. For a culture that is steeped in submission to Allah, to imply that Christianity, Hinduism, or Judaism, or other factions of Islam are just as true as their version of Islam, is to make secular neutrality more important and a higher ideal than devotion to God. In fact, as they look at the West, and its promotion of abortion, lust, divorce, homosexuality, fornication, and atheism, they see that our secularism leads to a rejection of Allah’s ways, and that is  purely satanic in their eyes.   Thus, we are seen as the “Great Satan.”

I wish President Bush had read Balkan Ghosts and studied the Bay of Pigs debacle before committing our troops to an idealistic and unrealistic enterprise. Balkan Ghosts may have led him to restrain the Neo-Con vision, and the Bay of Pigs may have led him to have less trust in the “Intelligence community” when it said that WMD’s in Iraq were a “slam dunk.”  But that is water under the bridge now.

Sympathy for the Devil?

While in no way can a Christian be in favor of the Eastern view of war, the mistreatment of women (honor killings, etc.), terrorism, suicide bombings and killing of innocents, there is at least an understanding of their resentment against western style secularism, stripped of any moral or religious values beyond the hailed “freedom of the individual.”  As Christians are increasingly ostracized from mainstream society, attacked for holding on to traditional moral values, and accused of bigotry and hate speech simply for believing in Jesus and the Scriptures as the Word of God, we may come to see the Islamist point about unchecked secularism resulting in an opposition to God and God’s ways. The sacred public square has become the secular public square, where people of faith of any stripe, are hardly permitted to speak, much less advocate for their values to be respected by law, without being attacked as being beyond the pale of  what is “socially acceptable.” Witness the recent attempt by the administration to impose abortion and contraceptive mandates upon churches, businesses, and religious institutions morally opposed to those values. The First Amendment rights of the people are being ignored or even slowly withdrawn by the secular state as the state advances its social agenda. The East may be wrong in its methods and wrong it many of its values, but it is right in its analysis of many of the consequences of unchecked secularism.

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The Danger of Executive Orders and a Universal Background Check

US Gun Ownership Grows Under Obama Presidency ...

US Gun Ownership Grows Under Obama Presidency NICS (Photo credit: Cory M. Grenier) 

So, if a universal background check (UBC) is passed, and the president decides through executive order to stop processing background checks (or the system is shut down due to budget constraints, or due to natural or man-made disaster), wouldn’t that put a universal gun ban in place immediately?

Shouldn’t there be a provision in any bill that if the UBC is shut down for any reason for longer than 4 days, that the law becomes null and void until such a time as the UBC is reinstated?

A UBC’s registration criteria should also be immune to political manipulation and tightly controlled. For instance, liberals in Congress would like to define NRA members, Second Amendment Supporters, and all those people who “cling to their God and their guns,” as mentally unstable and therefore subject to a gun ban.  Not so far-fetched when Homeland Security decided to include fundamentalist Christians and our military veterans in its identification of  potential terrorists!

 

 

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Wow, God demands obedience. Don’t compromise even a little!

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There is a graphic and gripping story tucked away in the pages of the Old Testament that most people have long forgotten or never knew  was there. The Bible takes an entire chapter to tell this story which does not have a “feel good ending.” In fact after you read the story you find yourself crying out, “Oh God, how could this be right?  Why did you do it this way?’  Then you put the Bible down or you go on to a part of the Bible that “makes more intuitive sense and feels better.”  And you commit this story to the “imponderables of God”, the things we will never understand here on earth and will have to wait till we get to heaven to get the answer.
I came across this story just this week as I read my way through the Bible in an “Entire Bible in 90…

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Faith and Science are Compatible – the Wonderful Complexity of Creation

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Is England Really Safer Due to Control? Apparently Not!

Summer's End. Lexington Green, 11 September 20...

Summer’s End. Lexington Green, 11 September 2002. Photo taken in Minute Man National Historical Park.

Let’s see, the politicians in Washington

  • who cannot balance a budget or even pass one for over three years
  • who are driving the nation into 20 trillion dollar deficits with no way to pay for it
  • who are totally unable to cut spending on anything
  • who cannot stop illegal immigration and have given up trying
  • who cannot stop the flow of illegal drugs and are losing the war on drugs
  • who pass 2000 page bills governing 1/4 of the economy but don’t bother to read the bills
  • who cannot keep guns out of the hands of criminals even though it is illegal for convicts to possess firearms

Now want us to trust them to do what is best for us by taking away our firearms which we own in order to protect ourselves from criminals and, if need be, to defend our liberties from attacks by all enemies foreign and domestic (note the Second Amendment had nothing to do with hunting).
And they want us to trust that since they can’t do anything half way intelligent in all the above, they want us to now trust them that they will make us safe and secure and protect us from all evils, crime, and danger, if we will just surrender our firearms to them?
What universe are they living in?

Piers Morgan, point to England as having a much less violent culture than the U.S. since the UK banned all guns in 1997. Here are the first two UK newspaper reports my search produced. Do your own search.

2009: “UK is violent crime capital of Europe”.
“The United Kingdom is the violent crime capital of Europe and has one of the highest rates of violence in the world, worse even than America, according to new research.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/5712573/UK-is-violent-crime-capital-of-Europe.html

Also 2009: “The most violent country in Europe: Britain is also worse than South Africa and U.S.”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1196941/The-violent-country-Europe-Britain-worse-South-Africa-U-S.html#ixzz2FuzjrCnc

A 2002 stultifying report by Reason magazine in the U.S.:
http://reason.com/archives/2002/11/01/gun-controls-twisted-outcome
“Your chances of being mugged in London are now six times greater than in New York.”

The United Kingdom is the violent crime capital of Europe and has one of the highest rates of violence in the world, worse even than America, according to new research.

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The New McCarthyism – Christians are the New Communists

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Top Five Regrets of the Dying

Top Five Regrets of the Dying | Beyond the Opposites.

Take Time To Reflect on Life While You Have Time

Top Five Regrets of the Dying
By Bronnie Ware

For many years I worked in palliative care. My patients were those who had gone home to die. Some incredibly special times were shared. I was with them for the last three to twelve weeks of their lives.
People grow a lot when they are faced with their own mortality. I learned never to underestimate someone’s capacity for growth. Some changes were phenomenal. Each experienced a variety of emotions, as expected, denial, fear, anger, remorse, more denial and eventually acceptance. Every single patient found their peace before they departed though, every one of them.
When questioned about any regrets they had or anything they would do differently, common themes surfaced again and again. Here are the most common five:

1. I wish I’d had the courage to live a life true to myself, not the life others expected of me
This was the most common regret of all. When people realize that their life is almost over and look back clearly on it, it is easy to see how many dreams have gone unfulfilled. Most people have had not honored even a half of their dreams and had to die knowing that it was due to choices they had made, or not made.

It is very important to try and honor at least some of your dreams along the way.

From the moment that you lose your health, it is too late. Health brings a freedom very few realize, until they no longer have it.

2. I wish I didn’t work so hard
This came from every male patient that I nursed. They missed their children’s youth and their partner’s companionship.

Women also spoke of this regret. But as most were from an older generation, many of the female patients had not been breadwinners. All of the men I nursed deeply regretted spending so much of their lives on the treadmill of a work existence.
By simplifying your lifestyle and making conscious choices along the way, it is possible to not need the income that you think you do. And by creating more space in your life, you become happier and more open to new opportunities, ones more suited to your new lifestyle.

3. I wish I’d had the courage to express my feelings
Many people suppressed their feelings in order to keep peace with others. Many developed illnesses relating to the bitterness and resentment they carried as a result.

As a result, they settled for a mediocre existence and never became who they were truly capable of becoming.

We cannot control the reactions of others. However, although people may initially react when you change the way you are by speaking honestly, in the end it raises the relationship to a whole new and healthier level. Either that or it releases the unhealthy relationship from your life. Either way, you win.

4. I wish I had stayed in touch with my friends
Often they would not truly realize the full benefits of old friends 
until their dying weeks and it was not always possible to track them down. Many had become so caught up in their own lives that they had let golden friendships slip by over the years. There were many deep regrets about not giving friendships the time and effort that they deserved. Everyone misses their friends when they are dying.

It is common for anyone in a busy lifestyle to let friendships slip. But when you are faced with your approaching death, the physical details of life fall away. People do want to get their financial affairs in order if possible. But it is not money or status that holds the true importance for them. They want to get things in order more for the benefit of those they love. Usually though, they are too ill and weary to ever manage this task. It is all comes down to love and relationships in the end. That is all that remains in the final weeks, love and relationships.

5. I wish that I had let myself be happier
This is a surprisingly common one.

Many did not realize until the end that happiness is a choice.

They had stayed stuck in old patterns and habits. The so-called ‘comfort’ of familiarity overflowed into their emotions, as well as their physical lives. Fear of change had them pretending to others, and to their selves, that they were content. When deep within, they longed to laugh properly and have silliness in their life again.
When you are on your deathbed, what others think of you is a long way from your mind. How wonderful to be able to let go and smile again, long before you are dying.

Life is a choice. It is YOUR life. Choose consciously, choose wisely, choose honestly. Choose happiness.

Original source – http://www.inspirationandchai.com/Regrets-of-the-Dying.html

Check out the book THE TOP FIVE REGRETS OF THE DYING by Bronnie Ware.

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Why You Don’t Believe in God – The Atheist’s Dilemma

god

As I have mentioned in previous articles, there are many reasons why atheists do not believe. There are legitimate reasons that cause people to question the reality of God: suffering, the death of a loved one, unanswered prayers, injustice in the world, being a victim of child abuse… All these ugly realities can raise serious questions about the existence of a just and loving God. Of course, it may not be fair to blame God for the evil that human beings freely choose to do. That would be a bit like blaming the police for people committing crimes. Nevertheless, there are wounded emotions that sometimes override rational perspectives and cause people to jump to unwarranted conclusions: God is to blame because, if he exists, he is omnipotent and could have stopped the evil. As I wrote before, part of the nature of God in humanity is freedom of the will, and for God to stop people from exercising their freedom, however badly, he would have to turn them into robots and destroy what makes them human. The freedom to love and do great good is the very same freedom that allows a person to hate and do great harm. Freedom exists, and is good in itself; the outcome depends all in how you choose to use it. If freedom were not a good thing, no one would have an objection to slave trafficking.

The “You Want the Truth? You Can’t Handle the Truth” Gospel.

You are an atheist and you don’t believe? There is a very simple reason why you don’t and it has nothing to do with evil in the world or human suffering. It also has nothing to do with reason, science, or evolutionary theories. The reason you don’t believe is that God has not given you the gift of faith. If God chose you to be saved you would believe, but because he has not chosen you, he has not given you faith. We live in a world where we have exalted our freedom and our rights, but we forget that God is the judge of human souls, and if God decides that your heart is bent towards evil and you will never change, he will not give you faith or allow you to believe. “What? What you say? God is judging me as evil?” Yes he is. “What have I done that is so wrong that God would judge me?” Well, the truth is you don’t love your enemies. You hate Christians. You hate conservatives (or liberals). You are angry with people who don’t agree with you. You hate people who believe in traditional moral values. (You are probably even burning with anger towards me right now with turmoil inside you over what I’m saying!) But God is perfect love and Jesus said:

You have heard that it was said, ‘You shall love your neighbor and hate your enemy.’ But I say to you, Love your enemies and pray for those who persecute you, so that you may be sons of your Father who is in heaven; for he makes his sun rise on the evil and on the good, and sends rain on the just and on the unjust. For if you love those who love you, what reward have you? Do not even the tax collectors do the same? And if you salute only your brethren, what more are you doing than others? Do not even the Gentiles do the same? You, therefore, must be perfect, as your heavenly Father is perfect.- Matthew 5:43-48

Now the truth is that no one has the ability to love their enemies out of natural human strength. Only God can love the unloveable, and only God can give you the ability to love those who hate and persecute you. The fact that you don’t love your enemies is the only proof you need that you are evil, just like I am. The only difference between you and me is that I know I am evil and not worthy of salvation or forgiveness, and you don’t. You see, God has set the perfect standard for love, and everyone falls short of that standard. To fall short of perfection is to do and be evil. Maybe it is not intentional, for we are visceral beings, more that just intellect. We are emotion and will. But even if it is not intentional, we still cannot love others perfectly. We cannot control our own heart, and so we fall short of God’s perfect nature of love. And in God’s eyes, falling short a little bit, is yielding to hate, and that, my friends and enemies, is evil.

We are in an age when we have dethroned God. We believe that neither God nor any man has the right to judge us. We have made ourselves our own gods. No one wants God to be the judge of human souls, so we justify ourselves and make ourselves right in our own eyes. We say things like “I try to be a good person.”  Well, trying isn’t good enough. Trying still fails to deal with the emotions and anger and hatred in our souls. And a little bit of hate is a poison that putrefies the whole. The problem God has with you is that you will not admit that your deeds and attitudes fall short of perfect love and because of that, he cannot help you. It is like the drug addict who boldly boasts that he doesn’t have a drug problem: if he doesn’t admit his need, he can’t be helped. Admitting the problem is the first step towards recovery. So, if you are boasting that you do no wrong, and that no one has the right to judge you, not even God, then God holds you at arm’s length and refuses to give you faith. Your pride is an offense to the living God, and on that basis alone, you are judged as unworthy.

And this is the judgment, that the light has come into the world, and men loved darkness rather than light, because their deeds were evil. For every one who does evil hates the light, and does not come to the light, lest his deeds should be exposed. But he who does what is true comes to the light, that it may be clearly seen that his deeds have been wrought in God. – John 3:19-21

You say, “That’s not fair. I’m no worse than any other person.” That is true. You are no worse than anyone else, but you are no better either. The point is that it is not being good that makes you worthy of eternal life, it is being honest about your weaknesses and having true sorrow over the things you do and have done that are wrong. When you hate, when you hurt others, when you are selfish, when you cheat, when you steal, when you speak badly about others behind their backs, you offend God. You fail to love. You do evil. And the evil is in your heart, so you just can’t change your behavior. It is in you and it is you. The only hope you have for your soul is a cleansing that comes from God’s Holy Spirit who enables you to be and become what you could not otherwise be: loving, patient, kind, long-suffering, not returning evil for evil, but loving your enemies.

You say, “Well that is all just rubbish. There is no God, and all this talk of God is utter religious nonsense. Faith is a delusion.”  The truth is, you do not believe because God has judged you as unworthy of his salvation. If he found you worthy, he would give you faith and reveal himself to you. But because he has not, he must have found something evil in your soul which you refuse to give up or surrender. Most likely it is that you have refused to forgive others for what they have done to you. “For if you forgive men their offenses  your heavenly Father also will forgive you yours, but if you do not forgive men their offences, neither will your Father forgive your offenses, ”  – Matthew 6:14, 15. Have you held a grudge and refused to forgive? God has put you on the outside of salvation, and has judged you.

You say, “I don’t believe that. It is all hocus-pocus.”  You wander in the delusion of empty certainty. No wonder you do not believe, for God has hidden the truth from you so that you will not believe and be saved. This is what Jesus said about you:

I praise you, Father, Lord of heaven and earth, because you have hidden these things from the wise and learned, and revealed them to little children. Yes, Father, for this was your good pleasure. All things have been committed to me by my Father. No-one knows the Son except the Father, and no-one knows the Father except the Son and those to whom the Son chooses to reveal him.- Matthew 11:25-27

God has not give you faith because he has judged you as unworthy of his salvation. He sees into your soul and knows your thoughts and finds them unacceptable. But it is not just your deeds and thoughts that trouble him, it is your refusal to admit your need for forgiveness or admit your powerlessness over the thoughts and desires of your own heart. If you refuse to acknowledge your evil deeds, then you blind yourself to his love and the power of his salvation. You are blind and you do not believe, but think you are justified and right, for “there is a way that seems right to a man, but in the end it leads to death,” – Proverbs 16:25.

The problem is that you do not get to judge whether or not you are worthy of salvation, for the Creator of the Universe has the right to judge you and judge the souls of all mankind. You boast and protest, but it does no good, for you are just a mere mortal and cannot contest against the power of the Creator. God is the sovereign judge of human souls and he is not fooled. He sees right through you and knows what is wicked in you. Your only way out is to confess your sins and ask for his mercy and forgiveness. Then you will be forgiven and be given the gift of faith and find salvation and eternal life.
“All that the Father gives me will come to me; and him who comes to me I will not cast out,” – John 6:37. Come to Jesus before it is too late, or be lost in your pride and your sin.

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America’s Fragile Empire

America’s Fragile Empire

The United States is at its most vulnerable point since the Cuban Missile Crisis.

"SHALL WE PLAY A GAME?" "Love to. How about Global Thermonuclear War?" - War Games (1983)

Aside from the possibility of total annihilation due to global thermonuclear war, the United States is at its most fragile point in its entire history. This vulnerability is largely due to its dependence on the infrastructure of computer technology powered by the electrical grid. As we have seen in the recent super-storm, hurricane Sandy, when the power went out, many people were reduced to living in the dark and scrounging up what food and blankets they could for weeks. They were without power, without gasoline, and without transportation. They were miles from the nearest food supplies and electricity. From what I read, the response was far from immediate. Now imagine this situation hitting the entire Eastern Seaboard at one time, extending 300 miles inland to middle of the Appalachians. Power gone with not only no way to call in extra power crews, but no way to communicate and coordinate with them. But this time, the problem is not downed power lines, but every transformer blown and no way to replace them. Imagine food stores empty and no deliveries available or planned for weeks. Surely there would be a FEMA response, but the need would be so overwhelming that whatever resources FEMA had would be drained in a week. Sound impossible? Sound horrific and unimaginable? Here are several very possible scenarios that could cause just such a collapse of the United States in a matter of hours.

 After this I saw another angel …he called out with a mighty voice, “Fallen, fallen is Babylon the great! ..Since in her heart she says, ‘A queen I sit, I am no widow, mourning I shall never see,’ so shall her plagues come in a single day, pestilence and mourning and famine, and she shall be burned with fire; for mighty is the Lord God who judges her. And the kings of the earth, who committed fornication and were wanton with her, will weep and wail over her when they see the smoke of her burning; they will stand far off, in fear of her torment, and say, “Alas! alas! thou great city, thou mighty city, Babylon! In one hour has thy judgment come.” And the merchants of the earth weep and mourn for her, since no one buys their cargo any more… The merchants of these wares, who gained wealth from her, will stand far off, in fear of her torment, weeping and mourning aloud, “Alas, alas, for the great city that was clothed in fine linen, in purple and scarlet, bedecked with gold, with jewels, and with pearls! In one hour all this wealth has been laid waste….Alas, alas, for the great city where all who had ships at sea grew rich by her wealth! In one hour she has been laid waste.” -Revelation 18:1-19

The mechanism for a 400 km high-altitude burst...

The mechanism for a 400 km high-altitude burst EMP: gamma rays hit the atmosphere between 20-40 km altitude, ejecting electrons which are then deflected sideways by the Earth’s magnetic field. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Scenario 1 (Likelihood:low. Preparedness:none. Popular expectation: unthinkable): Electro Magnetic Pulse weapon. For the military, Boeing has recently developed a missile call CHAMP that has the ability to knock out computers and electronics. Although CHAMP is a directed energy weapon, an undirected EMP weapon would knock out all electronics for thousands of miles if detonated in the atmosphere. We face two crazy rogue states that seem to have no instinct for self-preservation, both of which are developing nuclear bombs and long-range missiles: Iran and North Korea. Iran has a submarine that can legally be in waters just over 200 miles offshore. Even with its questionable missile technology, if it were to launch an EMP weapon and disrupt only the Eastern Seaboard, the economic and infrastructure devastation would be extreme. (Similarly, N. Korea has developed a missile that can reach the West Coast.) The government estimates that it would take from 1 to 3 years to replace the transformers, electronics, and communications systems. Imagine the entire East Coast without power for 3 years. Not only would the electrical grid be down, but cars and trucks would be knocked out as well. Modern autos are dependent upon internal computers, which would be overloaded and fried by an EMP burst. Computers, by which every transaction in grocery stores and gas stations are made, would be out of commission, even if you could find a way to pump what little remaining fuel there is in the tanks. Water filtration and the water pumping stations gone offline. No tap water, no clean drinking water.

In the 1970’s, during the first oil embargo against the United States, people were beating each other up in gas lines. Imagine millions of people starving, hungry and without food, roaming the streets and fanning out into the countryside (those that could make it that far) in search of food. Many will be armed. The rest will want to be.

In the 1940’s and 50’s, the electrical grid of the US was not connected, so knocking out one locality did not extend the damage beyond the affected area. Since the 1960’s, greater and great connectivity has been established, leading to the potential for larger blackouts, as happened most recently in 2003, in which large parts of the N.E. were knocked out by a tree that downed a single powerline. If an overload to the circuits were created by an EMP pulse on either coast, the blackout might well extend half way across the nation. Finally, a single blast in the upper atmosphere above Kansas would knock out the entire nation’s computer electronics, transportation, and electrical supply.

Another consequence of an attack on the electrical supply, which would probably knock out large portions of the internet as well and all the computers connected to it, is that our country now depends upon “just in time” delivery of goods. Inventory, stored in centralized warehouses, is shipped as needed to places all over the country. But if orders cannot be processed because the computer and the telecommunications systems are down, nothing can be shipped even if the goods are available.

Compare this situation to the 1940’s. Phones were used, and that would still be a problem, but factories were set up in various parts of the country, controlled by manual labor, not computers. The electric company’s power went only as far as the last utility poll. Steel mills operated by coal delivered by trains. Combustion engines did not depend upon computers, and even burned out distributor caps and wires could be easily replaced. There was also no possibility of an EMP attack at that time. But even if there had been, the recovery time would have been much shorter due to the state of technology. We were not dependent upon computers but the US Post Office, and most of our engine power was based upon simple, mechanical function. Cars did not even start to get computer circuits until the mid-70’s. What I’m saying is that it would be easier to recover from an attack years ago, when we were more decentralized and less dependent upon the power grid, electronics, and computers.

Scenario 2 (Likelihood:High. Preparedness:Developing. Popular expectation: unthinkable): Crippling cyber attack on electrical grid and/or internet. There are already hackers trying to break into our electrical grid, and some have succeeded. Leon Panetta and the Joint Chiefs have put out papers outlining the dangers and highlighting the real possibility of future successful attacks. Iran, and supposedly unofficial hackers in China, are playing cat-and-mouse games, trying to infiltrate everything from our military systems to banking systems, to the electrical grid, to nuclear power plants. As evidenced by the Suxtnet worm attack on Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities, government sponsored hackers are creating a new front in counter terrorism and counter espionage. The threat is so real that the Joint Chiefs have defined some types of cyber attacks as an act of war. If there were a successful attack on our electrical grid and/or nuclear power plants by cyber warfare, the results to the US would be the same as outlined in an EMP attack,  perhaps more short-lived only if these outages do not result in overloaded equipment failures creating transformer burnouts. However, one nuclear plant going into overload would have a devastating impact on the economy.

In scenario 2, I want to focus on the economic impact of a successful attack on the banking system or the internet itself. While we know Iran and Islamic terrorists have a desire to bring down our entire system, the Chinese have the expertise to do so. I suspect that due to their production and supply of most of our critical computer parts, they have already embedded back doors and sleeper codes into most of our relays, switches and control boards. Let us just speculate that China’s designs on Japan’s territorial islands and the oil fields in the Philippines becomes more aggressive, leading to a confrontation and perhaps a war. Our allegiance to our allies puts us in a very difficult situation: first of all the Chinese own a lot of our debt; second, they manufacture a lot of our supplies, including our military goods (made in Taiwan, but infiltrated by Mainland spies for sure.) Perhaps they even have electronic codes to cause our jet fighters’ computers and missile guidance systems to malfunction. But even if they don’t, they do have thousands of paid hackers intent on disrupting everything from communications to infrastructure, and could conceivably bring down the internet and the functioning of the banking system. Say the attack is limited to a total disruption of the internet through an overload of relay switches and internet hubs. Even if the government can shut it down in a matter of hours, they have to keep it off. The banking system has records backups, supposedly in secure locations. However, what happens when ATM’s no longer work, sales transactions by credit card cannot be made, and gas cannot be pumped out of the ground. Even if this attack only lasts for a few weeks, all the problems of on time deliveries and food shortages apply. Panic. Stock market crash, and a broken economic system follow.  A run on banks might occur, except a bank holiday is declared, so you can’t get your money out; or only a small portion per day. But by then it will be too late. International commerce will have ground to a halt. The entire internet system of buying and selling will be disrupted, and the dollar will have collapsed as nations withdraw their currency from our system and no longer will buy our bonds.

Scenario 3 (Likelihood:nearly inevitable. Preparedness:none. Popular expectation: head-in-the-sand denials.): Banking collapse and/or US bankruptcy. This scenario is probable, but not necessarily in the immediate near term. The US dollar’s strength depends upon the full faith and confidence of the world in the US government. Since we seem to lack the political will to cut expenditures, raise revenues, reform the tax code, and remove unneeded subsidies, we are headed for a fiscal implosion. Government estimates of the long-term liability of the unfunded pension plans and public debt (Social Security, Medicare, etc.) are headed towards the $60 trillion-dollar range in years to come. That means eventual inflation and the inability of the government to meet these expected obligations without perhaps crippling taxes, which then in turn may drive down tax revenues due to lowered productivity. I don’t want to debate the political side of this issue or dispute CBO predictions (which all depend upon assumptions fed to them by politicians), but simply to point out that a person living well beyond his means, unable to pay his credit card bill, will eventually be shut off from more credit as the lender sees his credit risk as too great. When the other nations see that we are no longer credit worthy, we will have the economic equivalent of a cardiac infarction  – a heart attack.

Aside from the unsustainable debt accumulation, there is another potential cause for an economic meltdown: the Black Swan event. The Black Swan is the unexpected and unanticipated event that no one predicted and for which no one prepared. In short, it is when the unthinkable happens. 9/11 was a Black Swan that no one anticipated. These are things that no one wants to think about because the consequences are too devastating to imagine. Here are some potential Grey Swans (the ones we can anticipate aren’t black swans 🙂

  1. The Greek people finally reject austerity and withdraw from the Euro zone, and/or there is a run on the banks in places like Spain (this happened already several times this year in Greece and Spain). But this run is one that gets out of control, and the Euro collapses, leading to a shattering meltdown of the US stock market and US banks that are overexposed. (They all say they have passed the stress test, but no one knows what happens if Europe really goes in the toilet). Worldwide depression ensues and people in the US can’t get their money out of the banks to pay for groceries, etc.
  2. Another terrorist attack in a sea port that cripples international shipping. Wired Magazine did an article on what appeared to be a dirty bomb, spewing high levels of radiation, which arrived at a port in Genoa.  Apparently our radiation detection equipment is very good at detecting everything except real threats: “The radiation portals that were deployed in the aftermath of 9/11 are essentially fine, except for three problems: They won’t find a nuclear bomb, they won’t find highly enriched uranium, and they won’t find a shielded dirty bomb… Other than that, they’re great pieces of equipment.” (19.11 November Issue 2011 p.190).  Say Iran or Islamic terrorists are able to get a bomb planted in a shipping container in a Middle Eastern port, like the one that went to Genoa. Suppose it gets detonated in a US port or European port. Immediately international shipping is brought to a standstill, and again panic ensues. The same goes for a dirty bomb which contaminates 40 city blocks in New York. It isn’t the bomb that is the problem, it is the economic aftermath.
  3.  A dirty bomb smuggled across the border and detonated in a US city. Already there are Hezbollah operatives in Mexico, using the drug traffickers to smuggle people, weapons, and cargo into the US. Suppose they decide to up the ante-up over our support of Israel, and they successfully detonate a radiological or chemical or biological device. Again, the ensuing panic will send the stock market into a tailspin. Our already fragile economy, barely recovered from the crash of 2008, may collapse.
  4. War between Iran and Israel shuts off the Gulf of Hormuz to oil transportation. While the response to this crisis may be short-lived, it will not be if Iran counter attacks with world-wide terror as it has threatened, or the conflict goes nuclear.
  5. Something else: a truly Black Swan.

In Conclusion

When the dog bites, when the bee stings
When I’m feeling sad,
I simply remember
my favorite things
and then I don’t feel so bad! – My Favorite Things

Julie Andrews sang of her favorite things as a way of forgetting about the bad things. But it is the really bad things you don’t want to think about that could ruin your day. In sum,  our nation’s reliance upon technology, electricity, computers and the internet puts us in the most vulnerable position we have ever been in as a nation, where a single critical event could turn our happy masses into starving mobs. Political chaos, economic collapse, mass starvation, and a government unable to cope with the nationwide extent of the problem, would turn us very quickly into a Third World country from which there would be no easy recovery, and perhaps where Americans would turn on each other in a scramble for food and water that would scar the psyche of every one left on earth. It would be far worse in the cities, where there is no place to grow food or get clean water, and where the trek alone of hundreds of miles would probably cause the death of millions.

We have watched these shows on television about pretended apocalypses, but even without thermonuclear war or backpack nukes, the infrastructure of the United States is so fragile  and the threats already so real, that one brazen attack by a deluded adversary could bring the whole system down. After all, wasn’t economic devastation Osama Bin Laden’s real objective?